A Case in Point

A far more likely explanation for the reduction in violence:

Sectarian fighting led to Sunni emigrations into adjacent countries and to Sunnis and Shias abandoning mixed neighborhoods in favor of homogeneous ones guarded by local militias. These population shifts made sectarian violence less likely, and provided a breathing space during which both sides could ponder where civil war was taking them. This internal Iraqi dynamic accounts for a considerable amount of the decline in violence, especially in Baghdad.

Source: A Perspective on the Surge | The Agonist

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