What Iran Really Wants

July 11th, 2008 Posted in Iran

What does Iran want? Foreign Policy Magazine:

Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains how the Islamic Republic responds to pressure, why Mahmoud Ahmadinejad laughs in the face of danger, and what Tehrans hard-liners think of Barack Obama.

Source: Foreign Policy: Seven Questions: What Iran Wants

A summary:

1. Khamenei: It’s important to thwart the idea that Iran will succumb to outside interference and pressure.
2. Ahmadinejad: America will not attack Iran, but an attack would only “rehabilitate his presidency”; but so would diplomacy.
3. The Israelis are not serious about attacking Iran — if they were, there would be “radio silence’ on the topic.
4. An Israeli attack will strengthen, not weaken Ahmadinejad.
5. Iran and the United States have many overlapping interests in Iraq, including its territorial integrity, the democratic process (because of the the Shiite majority), and the avoidance of an al-Qaeda-infested failed state.
6. The U.S. policy of fomenting ethnic and sectarian is a disastrous idea that would alienate the Iranian nationalists and democrats we want to see in power.
7. An Obama presidency would a) fundamentally transform U.S.-Iran relations, given his call for diplomacy b) be a public relations problem for Iran — because of his race, it would be hard to “constantly paint the United States as this grand oppresor.” A small minority of Iranian isolationists would benefit from a McCain presidency.